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In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán was notable as the sole European Union leader to back the Republican candidate. This backing came as no shock, given Mr Orbán's championing of divisive theories including great replacement ideology and his crackdowns on journalistic liberties. Commentators have noted that Mr Orbán practically laid the groundwork for the Make America Great Again campaign, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon lauding him as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance Ahead of the Hungarian Vote

Last week, amid key votes in Hungary just six months away, the US president offered electoral assistance. With Orbán seeks a fifth term in office governing a nation he calls an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party currently trails in the polls. A visit to Washington resulted in beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it secured highly beneficial electoral advantages.

Energy Exemptions and Economic Protections

Even though previously instructing European nations on the imperative to halt all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and threatening penalties against nations persisting to purchase Russian crude, the US president consented to allow a particular exclusion for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. As Orbán stated, the American leadership also promised to extend a fiscal buffer to the Hungarian authorities should it runs into any upcoming challenges, particularly since the European Union continues to withhold large sums from the EU to Hungary because of violations of legal standards.

The particulars of this deal are unclear. But the US president has shown his inclination to assist like-minded partners when the America granted a a $20 billion loan to the Argentine leader, the South American leader. While Orbán did not secure a campaign-energising Trump visit to the Hungarian capital, the Washington talks nevertheless proved a profitable day’s work.

European Apprehensions and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention likely emphasized the strategic importance of the coming election, before which the moderate contender, Péter Magyar, holds a comfortable lead in opinion data. Heads of state are accustomed not to anticipate steady principles from the Trump White House, and have grown used to the Trump's efforts to belittle the bloc. Yet the special treatment for Orbán – secured through an agreement to buy American energy resources – flagrantly undermines EU aspirations to phase out Russian oil and gas by 2027.

• Since 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian crude, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have funneled substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has often employed the veto power to impede moves in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• While Europe works to create a coordinated approach for backing Ukraine, and enhancing its leverage in any upcoming peace talks, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the negotiating table is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

The opposition candidate has steered clear of vowing a drastic turnaround on the Ukraine conflict, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while highlighting the importance for Hungary to start acting as a constructive EU member. Following persistent provocations, the European Union can only wait and hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to basic EU values, including the upholding of minority rights and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the European Union. His persistent opposition on the Ukraine issue could harm its security prospects.